Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 1.387188 1.464583 1.545168 1.635552 1.734363 1.839399 1.959882
2025-12-07 1.256664 1.363445 1.479482 1.615733 1.772367 1.948057 2.161829
2025-12-14 1.160295 1.280937 1.415700 1.578818 1.772872 1.998906 2.285998
2025-12-21 1.100099 1.231635 1.381907 1.568444 1.796902 2.071877 2.434779
2025-12-28 1.064605 1.206938 1.372872 1.583669 1.848936 2.178351 2.629709
2026-01-04 1.020256 1.168187 1.343453 1.570299 1.862189 2.234264 2.760700
2026-01-11 0.995644 1.151295 1.338704 1.585896 1.911325 2.337643 2.961869
2026-01-18 0.967722 1.128478 1.324736 1.587894 1.941409 2.416019 3.133168
2026-01-25 0.954810 1.123348 1.332153 1.617115 2.008406 2.548157 3.393220
2026-02-01 0.917709 1.085860 1.296167 1.586488 1.990931 2.559005 3.470181
2026-02-08 0.877796 1.043266 1.251761 1.542199 1.951481 2.534782 3.489035
2026-02-15 0.853296 1.019631 1.231117 1.529003 1.954778 2.572697 3.609151
2026-02-22 0.836590 1.006355 1.224631 1.536378 1.990024 2.663881 3.831616
2026-03-01 0.810957 0.980518 1.200421 1.517889 1.986399 2.695311 3.956654
2026-03-08 0.781522 0.948629 1.166787 1.484363 1.958185 2.685624 4.007496
2026-03-15 0.762607 0.930131 1.150624 1.474929 1.965455 2.732496 4.164564
2026-03-22 0.753024 0.923773 1.150736 1.488772 2.008737 2.840612 4.448007
2026-03-29 0.735195 0.905621 1.133755 1.476615 2.010474 2.879044 4.601092
2026-04-05 0.727084 0.900439 1.134632 1.490796 2.054411 2.992299 4.918423
2026-04-12 0.715437 0.889983 1.127603 1.492612 2.078231 3.071870 5.176795
2026-04-19 0.712107 0.890895 1.136695 1.519159 2.143869 3.231380 5.633706
2026-04-26 0.692399 0.868346 1.111259 1.491334 2.116988 3.218484 5.697782
2026-05-03 0.669771 0.841209 1.078504 1.451049 2.067236 3.159629 5.647317